What if the region grew, but we continued to sprawl outward as we have in the past?
This scenario assumes an unaltered projection of the region’s development patterns from 1990 to 2010 out to the year 2050. This is the unlikely “do-nothing” approach we can use as a starting point to measure the progress made in the three citizen-created scenarios.
The Business as Usual
The “Business As Usual” Scenario would see the trends of the past continue into the future. New jobs and homes would continue to grow on rural land while homes in first-ring suburbs as well as central cities would be abandoned. This sprawling development would be harder to serve by public transit.
- 1,553 lane miles of new roads to build and maintain
- 2 out of 3 new homes would go on previously undeveloped land
- Over 60,000 homes would be left abandoned in parts of our cities, suburbs and elsewhere
- Over 58,000 acres of current and potential prime farmland would be lost to development
- Local governments would have to spend 36% more than the amount they collect in revenue
- Only 1% of new homes and 4% of new jobs would have access to frequent transit service
Measuring the Business as Usual scenario against our priorities
Common priorities for the future of development in Buffalo Niagara were emphasized by citizens at the Scenario Planning Mapping Workshops. Here is how the Business as Usual scenario would meet those priorities.
Click here to find out how this scenario compares to the three alternatives.